This is the Husfarm price outlook for 9 November 2026 (2026-W46). It summarises what our statistical seasonal forecasts show for the next 12 weeks. Every figure below is a forecast based on each series' usual seasonal pattern, not a prediction of what will happen. Product figures are medians across series, each in its own currency. Ranges and typical errors matter throughout, and they are often wide.

Products where the seasonal pattern points up

The forecast points to higher prices by the end of the forecast period for six products. The list shows each product's median change to the end of the forecast, the number of series pointing up, and the typical 12-week error.

  • Soyabean Green (Edamame): +57.5%, with 5 of 5 series pointing up across 5 markets in 1 country; typical error ±27%.
  • Watermelon: +36.5%, with 15 of 17 series pointing up across 17 markets in 2 countries; typical error ±24%.
  • Potato: +27.0%, with 6 of 6 series pointing up across 6 markets in 1 country; typical error ±25%.
  • Sweet Corn: +24.9%, with 1 of 2 series pointing up across 2 markets in 1 country; typical error ±30%.
  • Asparagus: +21.5%, with 19 of 19 series pointing up across 19 markets in 1 country; typical error ±18%.
  • Eggplant: +20.9%, with 20 of 20 series pointing up across 20 markets in 3 countries; typical error ±11%.

The seasonal pattern suggests the broadest agreement for Asparagus and Eggplant, where every series points up. Sweet Corn is the weakest case: only one of two series points up, and its typical error of ±30% is the largest among the rises.

Products where the seasonal pattern points down

  • Pea: −32.8%, with 0 of 18 series pointing up across 18 markets in 1 country; typical error ±32%.
  • Strawberry: −25.1%, with 0 of 13 series pointing up across 13 markets in 1 country; typical error ±34%.
  • Tomato: −15.4%, with 4 of 40 series pointing up across 20 markets in 2 countries; typical error ±18%.
  • Kiwifruit: −13.8%, with 0 of 10 series pointing up across 10 markets in 1 country; typical error ±6%.
  • Yam: −5.8%, with 0 of 10 series pointing up across 10 markets in 1 country; typical error ±6%.
  • Banana: −5.4%, with 0 of 2 series pointing up across 2 markets in 1 country; typical error ±10%.

For Pea and Strawberry the typical errors of ±32% and ±34% are comparable in size to the median changes themselves, so the direction is more reliable than the exact level. Kiwifruit and Yam have the smallest typical errors, at ±6% each, but their median changes are also smaller for Yam. Tomato is not unanimous, with 4 of 40 series pointing up.

Closer look: Edamame in Tokyo

Three Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market series for Edamame in Japan all point up. The latest weekly averages are for the week of 26 October 2026. For the week of 23 November 2026 and the last forecast week, 18 January 2027, the forecast gives a most likely value and an 80% range.

  • Ota Market: latest weekly average 1,085 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 1,205 JPY/kg (range 985–1,483 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 1,709 JPY/kg (range 1,233–2,659 JPY/kg), a change of +57.5%. Typical 4-week error: 10.5%.
  • Toyosu Market: latest weekly average 1,336 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 1,738 JPY/kg (range 1,485–2,113 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 1,870 JPY/kg (range 1,394–2,542 JPY/kg), a change of +40.0%. Typical 4-week error: 10.4%.
  • Yodobashi Market: latest weekly average 1,333 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 1,648 JPY/kg (range 1,365–2,092 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 2,295 JPY/kg (range 1,702–3,489 JPY/kg), a change of +72.2%. Typical 4-week error: 13.4%.
Edamame, Ota Market (Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market) · mid-point of the published range, JPY/kg
5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000202520261,085

Source: Ota Market (Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market) via husfarm.com. Full price history

The Yodobashi Market range for the last forecast week is the widest of the three, which shows how much uncertainty sits behind a single most likely value.

Closer look: snow peas in Japan

Three snow pea series, all in Japan, point down. Their latest weekly averages are also for the week of 26 October 2026.

  • Fukuoka City Central Wholesale Market, Produce Market (Vegefru Stadium): latest weekly average 2,618 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 2,135 JPY/kg (range 1,397–2,996 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 1,637 JPY/kg (range 782–2,717 JPY/kg), a change of −37.5%. Typical 4-week error: 22.6%.
  • Hiroshima City Central Wholesale Market: latest weekly average 1,842 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 1,799 JPY/kg (range 1,082–2,892 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 1,367 JPY/kg (range 701–2,437 JPY/kg), a change of −25.8%. Typical 4-week error: 23.2%.
  • Kanazawa City Central Wholesale Market: latest weekly average 2,190 JPY/kg. For 23 November 2026 the most likely value is 1,493 JPY/kg (range 935–2,277 JPY/kg). For 18 January 2027 it is 1,334 JPY/kg (range 620–2,248 JPY/kg), a change of −39.1%. Typical 4-week error: 21.6%.
Snow peas, Fukuoka City Central Wholesale Market, Produce Market (Vegefru Stadium) · mid-point of the published range, JPY/kg
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000202520262,618

Source: Fukuoka City Central Wholesale Market, Produce Market (Vegefru Stadium) via husfarm.com. Full price history

The typical 4-week errors for these series, between 21.6% and 23.2%, are roughly double those of the Edamame series. The ranges overlap the latest weekly averages in several cases, so the forecast should be read as a lean in one direction, not a fixed path.

The seasonal calendar for the coming months

For the six products with rises, the calendar compares the next two months with each product's yearly average, using the years 2024–2026. All figures below are for Japan.

  • Soyabean Green (Edamame): December +35.3%, January +70.5%.
  • Watermelon: December +47.4%, January +66.2%.
  • Potato: December +6.0%, January +12.8%.
  • Sweet Corn: December −4.0%, January +39.4%.
  • Asparagus: December +23.4%, January +44.1%.
  • Eggplant: December +32.7%, January +10.7%.

The seasonal pattern suggests that January is usually the stronger month for most of these products. Sweet Corn starts slightly below its yearly average in December, and Eggplant is the one product whose January figure is lower than its December figure.

How accurate are the forecasts?

Husfarm has published 811 series, out of 1156 tested, covering 23 markets in 5 countries. For the published series the typical 4-week error is 10.6%, against 12.7% for a no-change forecast. At 12 weeks the typical error is 15.0%, against 22.1% for no change. Across all tested series, the 4-week error is 8.6% against 9.4% for no change, and the 12-week error is 12.6% against 15.7%.

Archiving of forecasts began on 9 November 2026, so there is not yet a record of archived forecasts at 4 or 12 weeks. Further detail is on the accuracy page at https://husfarm.com/forecasts/accuracy/, and all forecasts are at https://husfarm.com/forecasts/.

On method: these are statistical forecasts that extend each series' own seasonal pattern, starting from the latest weekly average and adding a share of the typical change seen over the same weeks in earlier years. A series is published only if this approach beat a no-change forecast over its own most recent year. The 80% range comes from the series' own past errors. Product figures are medians across series, each in its own currency. Policy, currency moves and unusual seasons are not in the model.

All price forecasts · Forecast accuracy · How the forecasts work