> Watermelon wholesale price forecast for 17 series in Poland and Japan: 4- and 12-week ranges, typical error, and the months when watermelon is cheapest.

Source: https://husfarm.com/forecasts/watermelon/

[Home](https://husfarm.com/)›[Prices](https://husfarm.com/prices/)›[Price forecasts](https://husfarm.com/forecasts/)›WatermelonPrice forecast · data of 13 Nov 2026

# Watermelon price forecast for the next 12 weeks

17 wholesale watermelon price series from 17 markets in Poland and Japan have a forecast. The median series points to a rise over the coming weeks (+36.5% by the end of the forecast), against a typical 12-week error of 24%. Below: when watermelon is usually cheapest and dearest in 3 countries.

[Watermelon prices today](https://husfarm.com/today-price/watermelon/)[Method](https://husfarm.com/forecasts/#method)

[Forecasts](#forecasts)[All series](#all)[Seasonal calendar](#seasons)[Questions](#questions)

## Watermelon forecasts: 4 markets with the longest test record

Weekly average priceMost likely path80% range: 8 in 10 past forecasts ended inside a range this wide

### [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/targpiast-wroclaw/watermelons/)

🇵🇱 Targpiast, Wrocław, Poland
Latest weekly average**7.50** PLN/kg week of 9 Nov 2026
Week of 7 Dec 2026 +4 weeks**6.74–11.1** most likely 7.92 · +5.6%
Week of 1 Feb 2027 +12 weeks**6.08–13.0** most likely 8.13 · +8.3%
Typical error in tests12.9% at 4 weeks, 22.9% at 12 weeks (“no change”: 12.8% and 46.8%)

### [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/hiroshima-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)

🇯🇵 Hiroshima City Central Wholesale Market, Japan
Latest weekly average**298** JPY/kg week of 26 Oct 2026
Week of 23 Nov 2026 +4 weeks**224–480** most likely 296 · −0.8%
Week of 18 Jan 2027 +12 weeks**290–1,135** most likely 512 · +71.9%
Typical error in tests12.4% at 4 weeks, 25.5% at 12 weeks (“no change”: 17.8% and 38.3%)

### [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/kitakyushu-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)

🇯🇵 Kitakyushu City Central Wholesale Market, Japan
Latest weekly average**605** JPY/kg week of 26 Oct 2026
Week of 23 Nov 2026 +4 weeks**492–1,151** most likely 701 · +15.9%
Week of 18 Jan 2027 +12 weeks**468–1,176** most likely 695 · +14.8%
Typical error in tests10.1% at 4 weeks, 20.4% at 12 weeks (“no change”: 10.9% and 28.1%)

### [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/nagoya-city-central-wholesale-market-northern-market/watermelons/)

🇯🇵 Nagoya City Central Wholesale Market (Northern Market), Japan
Latest weekly average**248** JPY/kg week of 26 Oct 2026
Week of 23 Nov 2026 +4 weeks**155–343** most likely 223 · −10.2%
Week of 18 Jan 2027 +12 weeks**238–923** most likely 427 · +72.0%
Typical error in tests14.8% at 4 weeks, 19.4% at 12 weeks (“no change”: 16.3% and 41.4%)

## All watermelon forecasts

Prices in each market’s currency and unit. Range: 80%. Typical error: median error at 12 weeks in the test on the series’ own history.
Watermelon price forecasts by market, data of 13 Nov 2026
| Quote and market | Latest week | In 4 weeks | In 12 weeks | Change | Typical error |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/targpiast-wroclaw/watermelons/)🇵🇱 Targpiast, Wrocław
| 7.50 PLN/kg | 6.74–11.1 | 6.08–13.0 | +8.3% | ±23% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/hiroshima-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Hiroshima City Central Wholesale Market
| 298 JPY/kg | 224–480 | 290–1,135 | +71.9% | ±26% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/kitakyushu-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Kitakyushu City Central Wholesale Market
| 605 JPY/kg | 492–1,151 | 468–1,176 | +14.8% | ±20% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/nagoya-city-central-wholesale-market-northern-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Nagoya City Central Wholesale Market (Northern Market)
| 248 JPY/kg | 155–343 | 238–923 | +72.0% | ±19% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/osaka-city-central-wholesale-market-honjo/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Osaka City Central Wholesale Market (Main Market)
| 315 JPY/kg | 253–478 | 306–639 | +36.5% | ±20% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/ota-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Ota Market (Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market)
| 333 JPY/kg | 269–443 | 303–562 | +24.2% | ±22% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/takamatsu-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Takamatsu City Central Wholesale Market
| 291 JPY/kg | 207–392 | 240–520 | +26.4% | ±24% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/fukuoka-city-produce-market-vegfru-stadium/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Fukuoka City Central Wholesale Market, Produce Market (Vegefru Stadium)
| 210 JPY/kg | 174–301 | 183–357 | +18.7% | ±20% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/kyoto-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Kyoto City Central Wholesale Market
| 315 JPY/kg | 223–499 | 274–871 | +54.1% | ±31% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/okinawa-prefectural-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Okinawa Prefectural Central Wholesale Market
| 283 JPY/kg | 178–348 | 174–465 | −2.6% | ±19% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/toyosu-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Toyosu Market (Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market)
| 369 JPY/kg | 210–482 | 261–747 | +19.6% | ±26% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/yodobashi-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Yodobashi Market (Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market)
| 347 JPY/kg | 259–535 | 365–1,291 | +71.5% | ±31% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/nagoya-city-central-wholesale-market-honjo/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Nagoya City Central Wholesale Market (Main Market)
| 298 JPY/kg | 236–424 | 305–615 | +45.5% | ±16% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/sapporo-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Sapporo City Central Wholesale Market
| 402 JPY/kg | 339–836 | 359–1,277 | +65.5% | ±41% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/yokohama-central-wholesale-market-honjo/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Yokohama City Central Wholesale Market (Main Market)
| 393 JPY/kg | 297–519 | 254–556 | −7.8% | ±26% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/kanazawa-city-central-wholesale-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Kanazawa City Central Wholesale Market
| 864 JPY/kg | 762–2,137 | 610–3,985 | +54.0% | ±34% |
| [Watermelons](https://husfarm.com/prices/quotes/osaka-city-central-wholesale-market-eastern-market/watermelons/)🇯🇵 Osaka City Central Wholesale Market (Eastern Market)
| 184 JPY/kg | 166–585 | 182–648 | +85.0% | ±33% |

## When is watermelon cheapest? Seasonal price calendar

Usual wholesale price in each month against the yearly average, by country.
Watermelon wholesale prices by month, percent above or below the yearly average
| Country | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Cheapest | Dearest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 🇯🇵 Japan18 series · 18 markets · 2024–2026 | +66 | +50 | +22 | +8 | −0 | −34 | −30 | −29 | −22 | −10 | −10 | +47 | June | January |
| 🇬🇹 Guatemala2 series · 2 markets · 2016–2025 | −12 | −13 | −13 | −14 | −14 | −4 | +2 | +3 | +24 | +20 | +20 | +8 | April | September |
| 🇵🇱 Poland1 series · 1 market · 2022–2026 | +24 | +16 | +41 | +33 | +14 | −4 | −24 | −33 | −29 | −7 | +4 | +31 | August | March |

cheaper than the yearly average · dearer · figures in % · · no quotes in that month (season or data gap). Monthly averages of each series against its yearly average, after removing the long-term trend such as inflation; median across series and markets of the country, years with at least 10 months of quotes.

### A statistical forecast, not advice

The forecasts extend each series’ own seasonal pattern; they do not know about this year’s weather, harvests, policy or currency moves. Use the range, not only the central figure, and do not base trading, purchasing or credit decisions on them alone.

## Questions and answers

Will watermelon prices go up or down in the coming weeks?Of 17 watermelon price series with a forecast, 15 point higher and 2 lower or flat by the end of the forecast; the median series points to a rise (+36.5%). The forecasts repeat what the season usually does and are recalculated daily (data of 13 Nov 2026).
When is watermelon cheapest?In Japan, wholesale watermelon prices are usually lowest in June (−34.0% against the yearly average) and highest in January (+66.2%), based on 18 price series from 18 markets, 2024–2026. The calendar on this page shows 2 more countries.
How accurate is the watermelon price forecast?In tests on the last 52 weeks of each series, the typical 12-week error of the published watermelon forecasts was 24%. Each series passed the test only because its errors were smaller than those of a “no change” forecast. Results of the archived forecasts are on the accuracy page.
Where do the watermelon prices come from?From the wholesale markets and price services listed on each series, as published, in their own currencies and units. Husfarm does not adjust them except to compute weekly and monthly averages.

[Husfarm Watermelon Index](https://husfarm.com/indices/watermelon-world/) · [Watermelon prices today](https://husfarm.com/today-price/watermelon/) · [All price forecasts](https://husfarm.com/forecasts/) · [Accuracy](https://husfarm.com/forecasts/accuracy/)
Calculated from Husfarm price data; changes with every update. Data licensed under [CC BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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